2027 Medicare costs: the earliest forecast we have.

Published July 27, 2026 · By Erik Roti, Options.Health

A note before we start: everything in this post is a projection, not an official number. CMS typically confirms the coming year’s Medicare premiums, deductibles, and IRMAA brackets in a press release each November, with Medicare Advantage and Part D plan details published on Medicare Plan Finder in early October. Until then, the figures below come from the Medicare Trustees Report, CMS’s rate-setting documents, and industry forecasters — useful for planning, but not something to treat as locked in.

Part B premium: projected around $209.50, but watch for revisions

The 2026 Medicare Trustees Report projects the standard 2027 Part B premium at $209.50 a month, up from $202.90 in 2026 — a 3.25% increase, and a notably smaller jump than the roughly 9.7% increase from 2025 to 2026. Worth knowing: last year’s Trustees Report had projected a considerably higher $218.60 for the same year, and some private forecasters still expect the real number to land somewhere in the $215–$219 range. That swing between reports is a good reminder of how much this figure can move before it’s official.

IRMAA thresholds: likely higher, but by how much is still open

The income thresholds that trigger IRMAA surcharges are projected to rise from $109,000 to somewhere around $111,000–$114,000 for single filers, and from roughly $218,000 to around $222,000–$228,000 for joint filers — based on partial 2026 inflation data that CMS hasn’t finished compiling. The very top bracket ($500,000 single / $750,000 joint) is frozen by law through 2028, so that one won’t move regardless of inflation. Remember that your 2027 IRMAA is based on your 2025 income — if that year included a one-time spike, Form SSA-44 lets you ask Social Security to use more current numbers.

Part D: two numbers are already locked in, one is still guesswork

Unlike Part B, some 2027 Part D numbers are already finalized by rule rather than projected: the annual out-of-pocket cap rises to $2,400 (from $2,100), and the standard deductible rises to $700 (from $615). What’s genuinely uncertain is standalone Part D plan premiums — insurers are absorbing more of the catastrophic-cost risk as federal premium-stabilization subsidies step down, and forecasters expect real volatility plan-by-plan rather than a single predictable trend. If you’re on a standalone drug plan, this is the year to actually re-shop it in October rather than letting it auto-renew.

Medicare Advantage: funding came in better than initially feared

CMS’s January Advance Notice proposed a nearly flat 0.09% payment increase to MA plans for 2027, which insurers warned would squeeze premiums and supplemental benefits. The final April Rate Announcement landed meaningfully higher, at a 2.48% average payment increase (about 4.98% including risk-score trend) — over $13 billion more than 2026. That’s a genuinely better funding environment than the early proposal suggested, though individual plan premiums and benefit packages for 2027 still won’t be published until Medicare Plan Finder opens this October.

Minnesota Medigap: the one figure that won’t be knowable until later

Minnesota is one of a small handful of community-rated states, meaning your Medigap premium doesn’t rise simply because you had a birthday. Carrier-by-carrier 2027 rate filings with the Minnesota Department of Commerce aren’t public yet, and typically aren’t finalized until later in the year — this is genuinely the hardest of these five numbers to forecast this early. One concrete Minnesota-specific change that is already law: starting with this fall’s enrollment period, Minnesotans ages 65–70 with pre-existing conditions gain a new guaranteed-issue window to enroll in Medigap without medical underwriting, though it carries a rate surcharge starting at 15% and rising to 35% by 2029.